UK general election

Under the Constitution of the United Kingdom, dates for general elections are not fixed, and can be called at short notice. Although one is not required to be held until 2006, five years after the 2001 election, it has been widely speculated that there will be an election some time in 2005 - the 2001 election itself was called four years into a term, as were those in 1970, February 1974, 1983, and 1987. Media reports in late October of 2004 suggest that Blair is aiming to hold the election in February of 2005.

The ruling Labour Party will be looking to secure a third term in office. The Conservative Party will be seeking to regain seats captured by both the Liberal Democrats and Labour in the 1997 election, whilst the Liberal Democrats hope to make further gains from both sides.

In Scotland, subject to legislation being passed by the Westminster Parliament to break the linkage between Westminster Parliament constituencies and Scottish Parliament constituencies, this election will mark a reduction of the number of constituencies for the Westminster Parliament - Scotland is currently overrepresented in the Westminster Parliament on a per capita basis, and its MPs will be cut from 72 to 59.

In Northern Ireland the election looks likely to be dominated by a battle between the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party to be the province's largest party in parliament. Although the former won more MPs at the last General Election, defections have since reversed the position. Other elections in the province have shown both a shift in votes towards the DUP but also a collapse of support for the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland which may work in the UUP's favour. In the Nationalist community, the election battle between Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party looks set to dominate. Other elections have shown a clear shift in support from the SDLP to Sinn Féin and if this is duplicated then some constituencies will change hands between the two, reducing the number of MPs who vote in Westminster.

The House of Commons following the 2005 general election will contain 646 MP's (down from the current 659 due to the boundary changes mentioned above). This means that the House of Commons currently controlled by Labour (with 413 seats at the last election) will not be able to be used as a guide to how the parties have done. The calculations (based on the 13 Scottish seats that will disappear; also ignoring defections and by-elections) suggest that the old House of Commons would be comprised thus:

• Labour - 403 seats (-9)
• Conservatives - 165 seats (-1)
• Liberal Democrats - 51 seats (-1)
• Ulster Unionists - 6 seats
• Democratic Unionists - 5 seats
• Plaid Cymru - 4 seats
• Scottish Nationalist Party - 4 seats (-1)
• Sinn Féin - 4 seats
• Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 seats
• Kidderminster Health Concern - 1 seat

Labour overall majority of 160

As the SDLP MPs often vote with Labour, this extends the effective Labour majority to 166. Sinn Féin MPs abstain from Westminster completely, which in practical terms reduces the number of seats needed for an overall majority. In the event of a hung parliament with the main parties as close as in the one in the February 1974 election these two factors could prove decisive.

External links

• BBC article predicting an election in spring 2005 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3545611.stm)
• BBC article again attempting to predict the date of the election (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3936267.stm)
• General Election Prediction: If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen? (http://www.financialcalculus.co.uk/election/)

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