New Zealand general election

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The 2005 New Zealand general election is a predicted nation-wide election for the New Zealand Parliament. It has yet to be scheduled, and there remains the hypothetical possibility of an early election being called before 2005, but unless the current government collapses before the end of its term, an election in 2005 seems probable. Under electoral law, the election cannot be called any later than August 2005.

Background

The 2002 elections saw the governing Labour Party retain office. However, its junior coalition parner, the Alliance, collapsed, leaving Labour to form a coalition with the new Progressive Coalition, formed by former Alliance leader Jim Anderton. The coalition then obtained an agreement of support from United Future, enabling it to command a majority. The National Party, Labour's main opponents, suffered a considerable defeat, winning only 21% of the vote.

The 2002 election result further strengthened the impression that the traditional two-party system had broken down. Beginning with the first election under the MMP electoral system, Labour and National found their traditional dominance gone, and needed to ally themselves with smaller parties. The 2002 election saw the combined strength of the two major parties drop below two thirds of the seats in Parliament.

The collapse of National's vote led to the replacement of leader Bill English with newcomer Don Brash. Brash began an aggressive campaign against the Labour government. A major part of this campaign was his well-known "Orewa speech", in which he attacked the government for giving "special treatment" to the Maori population, particularly over the foreshore and seabed controversy. This resulted in a surge of support for the National Party, although most polls indicate that this has since subsided. The foreshore and seabed controversy also resulted in the creation of the new Maori Party, which may or may not play a large role in the 2005 election.

United Future have announced that they will contest the 2005 general election in partnership with Outdoor Recreation New Zealand although the two parties will not merge. Outdoor Recreation New Zealand gained 1.28% of the party vote in 2002 and hence fell below the MMP threshold.

The Alliance have announced that they will not contest the party vote in the 2005 general election (reflecting the presumably impossible task of reaching the 5% threshold). Instead they advised their supporters to vote for the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand or the Maori Party. The Alliance will contest electorate seats however.

Some observers believe that the 2005 general election will be a return to "two party politics", citing evidence that with National's popularity coming directly from smaller parties. One such smaller party is ACT, which now has its future in doubt should it fail to win a seat in 2005 or get above the 5% threshold.

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