Kardashev scale

Contents

Scale explanation

The Kardashev scale is a general method of classifying how technologically advanced a civilization is, first proposed in 1964 by the Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev. It has three categories, based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal and increasing logarithmically:

  • Type I - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet, approximately 1016 W (given the Solar constant for Earth, this value for Earth exceeds 1.74×1017 W).
  • Type II - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 1026 W (the Sun outputs appoximately 3.86×1026 W).
  • Type III - A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 1036 W.

Human civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization has been unofficially named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan attempted to extrapolate and calculated humanity's current civilization to be 0.7.

A possible contender for the advancement to a Type I civilization is to begin the heavy use of ocean thermal energy conversion, wind turbines and tidal power to obtain the energy received by Earth's oceans from the Sun. However there is no known way to successfully utilise the full potential of Earth's energy production without complete coating of the surface with man made structures. In the near and medium future, this is an impossibility given humans' current lifestyle.

A hypothetical Type II civilization might employ a Dyson sphere or other similar construct in order to utilize all of the energy output by a star, or perhaps more exotic means such as feeding stellar mass into a black hole to generate usable energy. A Type III civilization might use the same techniques employed by a Type II civilization, applied to all of the stars of a galaxy individually, or perhaps might use other mechanisms not yet proposed.

All such civilizations are purely hypothetical at this point. However, the Kardashev scale is of use to SETI researchers, science fiction authors, and futurists as a theoretical framework.

A common and recognisable example of a fictional civilization capable of entering a Type III level are Star Trek's Borg who utilise energy on a massive scale, being in between Type II and Type III. One of the proposed uses of such energy sources is star lifting, by which stars may be mined for raw materials.

Weakness by supposition?

It has been argued that, because we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior; thus, Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what will actually occur for an advanced civilization. Theories like this are discussed at Carbon chauvinism. This central argument is found within the book Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life (A more controversial discussion can be found at Future Hi: Exotic Civilizations: Beyond Kardaschev (http://www.futurehi.net/archives/000106.html)).

It is also possible that the unique conditions on Earth allow for specific technologies to develop which would take many times longer for a Civilization not having these conditions to achieve. The list of presuambly unique conditions on Earth, and of related discoveries, is quite long. Some examples:

It is possible that the conditions for the creation of hydrocarbons, coal, or natural gas would not exist on other planets. These fuels were essential for us to move past dependence upon wood and animal based energy systems. Although waterwheel, wind, and solar energy technologies existed, they were not developed further until suitable industrial techniques were found to produce better matterals. These techniques consume massive amounts of energy, and therefore could not be powered by the unimproved technologies. A similar argument could be made that without fossil fuel technologies, more powerful technologies, such as nuclear reactors, could not develop.

Counter-argument: abundance of alternative sources

Human perception has a natural bias towards the known energy development paths of Human civilization. It must also be noted that during both the 1973 energy crisis and the 1979 energy crisis highly industrialized societies continued to function; many moved towards developing alternative energy technologies on a massive scale under the assumption that these could provide the energy needed to continue industrial and commercial processes should fossil fuel supplies be compromised in some critical way.

Given this development, it is possible that a society could develop without a stage where fossil fuel based energy productuction occurs. This version of Buckminster Fuller's argument on Current solar income conforms with Paul Hawken's idea of restorative economy, stating that fossil fuel based energy production is not essential nor desirable given the effects and alternatives. Also, it must be noted that the principles behind the fuel cell were discovered by Christian Friedrich Schönbein in 1838, and were applied by Sir William Grove in 1843, before there was widespread usage of fossil fuels other than coal. This raises the possibility that for alien civilizations fuel cells could be used in place of hydrocarbon fuels. It was only in the 1850s that the first industrial petroleum extraction was started by Edwin Drake.

Futher discussion

Other articles on the estimation of civilization development

Civilization implications

Possible Kardashev Scale Expansion of Human Civilization from Long Term History (http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/LongTermHistory.htm)
Possible Kardashev Scale Expansion of Human Civilization from Long Term History (http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/LongTermHistory.htm)

Given the fact that there must be a transition between civilization periods for each level, social upheval can be prevalent in transition, especially with the Type 0 to Type I transition, where it is speculated given current conditions on this planet, that self-destruction is highly likely. Many individuals have pointed to the faster upheval of civilization periods as indicative of an upcoming change over to Type I civilization. It is notable, if the numbers given under Current Values are accurate, that we are accelerating towards the eventual Type 0/ Type I transition. Further discussion of this can be read at Long Term History (http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/LongTermHistory.htm), though the factual accuracy of this souce must be taken lightly.

Contact constraints

For pre-Type I civilizations, it is costly to attempt contact with other more advanced civilizations because of the energy output needed. It has been predicted that in order to provide a reliable contact beacon of sufficient power to be noticable to a Type II civilization, it must output such high energy levels that the cost between $1 trillion to $10 trillion in energy. The latter figure is the approximate GDP of the United States at the end of the 1990s through the begining of the 21st Century. Further discussion can be found at Interstellar Probes: A New Approach to SETI (http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/InterstellarProbesJBIS1980.htm); the consensus is that civilization must advance high into Type I before the energy required for reliable contact with other civilizations becomes sufficiently low that it does not drain a civilization's economic resources.

Hypothetical extensions

The exponential structure of the scale allows ready extrapolation to higher types. For example:

  • Type IV: control of the energy output of a galactic supercluster; approximately 1046W.
  • Type V: energy control over the entire universe; approximately 1056W. Such a civilization approaches or surpasses the limits of speculation based on current scientific understanding, and may not be possible. Frank J. Tipler's Omega point would presumably occupy this level.

Fictional extensions

These extensions are mainly used in science fiction. They are not "official" and may differ from source to source. For example, some authors would class a "Type V" civilization as Type IV instead. Further examples of extensions of the scale follow:

  • Type VI: Energy control over multiple universes; a power level that is technically infinite
    • The civilization may have gained the ability to alter physical laws across multiple universes
    • These civilizations can escape a dying universe, and thereby become eternal; it is possible that less advanced civilizations can do so as well.
  • Type VII: Hypothetical status of a deity, able to create universes at will, using them as an energy source
    • It is interesting and important to note that as of yet, no science fiction literature characterizes beings with energy usages in the range of Type VII. Type VII though is well beyond the stage of understanding that humans can incur beyond a technological singularity.

Futher discussion can be read at Just My Type: Kardashev Civilizations in SF and Beyond (http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/6513/70188)

Hypothetical futures

Science fiction, having extended these values has also provided guides for possible future changes associated with the fractionalized version of the Kardashev scale. A possible one is presented here§:

Type 0 No Civilization

Type I Single Planetary Civilization Type II Civilization extends to the entire Solar System Type III Colonization of the Milky Way Galaxy Type IV Colonization of the Local Group <p>Type V Colonization of Futher Galaxies and the Cluster surrounding the Local Group, including the Visible Universe <p>§ This is by no means accurate, but an informational approximation, noting that intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal.

See also

Current values

Given certain values for planetary power production, it is know that:


Year Energy production Fractional Kardashev
scale equivalent*
exajoules/year watts
1900 21 6.65906×1012W 0.682341269
1970 190 6.02486×1013W 0.777994699
1985 290 9.19584×1013W 0.796359139
1989 319 1.01154×1014W 0.800498408
1993 338 1.07179×1014W 0.803011009
1995 363 1.15107×1014W 0.806110002
2000 424 1.3445×1014W 0.812855925
2001 450 1.42694×1014W 0.815440591


* Note that intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal.

Related articles

External links

References






pl:Klasyfikacja cywilizacji według Kardaszewa

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